✎ Obligatory Apple Tablet Predictions
Unless almost everyone on the planet is incorrect, Apple is on the verge of releasing a computer in the form of a tablet at their upcoming media event.
Time for some predictions!
Display
10” seems to be the most often predicted size, but I think 13” is even more likely.
There’s some talk of a 7” display, but I think that’s too small, too limiting. Almost everything you can do on a 7” screen you can probably do almost as well on an iPhone or iPod touch, or much, much better on a 10” or 13” display. 7” is the awkward, unwanted middle step-child that Apple will have nothing to do with.
Multiple models with multiple sizes would surprise me. The single display size of the iPhone and iPod touch line has done developers a world of good, and my guess is window management is one of the things we’re going to see absent from the Tablet.
In addition to that I think we’re going to see pressure sensitivity, possibly multitouch pressure sensitivity, if they figured out a way to do it well. It would be awesome for games.
So, a 13” display with multitouch and pressure sensitivity.
Text Input
One of the major problems with tablet computers is that text input is, in a word, horrible. The options are basically an inadequate software keyboard that everyone hates to use for more than a sentence, an external, detached keyboard/dock solution, or you stick a hardware keyboard on the thing and it ceases to be a tablet anyway.
So the question is, has Apple solved the text input problem? Did they figure out a way to get text into the Tablet that:
- Doesn’t involve a keyboard?
- Doesn’t cause you to swell with rage at the prospect of composing a paragraph on the device?
If they’ve solved it, I think it’ll take the form of some sort of holy-shit-that’s-amazing handwriting recognition, and they’ll bundle a stylus with the Tablet. Yes, I said a stylus. This is the only eventuality that lends credence to the rumors of a multitouch iWork suite.
But I predict that they haven’t solved it, not completely.
I bet there’s going to be a great software keyboard. I’ll bet it’s so great, in fact, that it makes the iPhone’s software keyboard pale in comparison (until iPhone 4.0, of course). But here’s the thing; as great as it is, it’s not going to cut it for any real work, blogging, or writing your novel.
So what does that mean? If Apple wasn’t able to come up with a method for text input that’s at least as good as a MacBook’s keyboard they’re going to position the device as something you rarely have to type on, not a fully-fleged computer replacement. The focus of the tablet will be consuming content, not creating it.
Of course, capturing and editing is another matter…
Camera & Media
I think it will have a front-facing iSight and an SD card slot. The SD slot will be used only for transferring media. Period.
The iSight will be good enough for video chat (which you’ll be able to do via the iChat app that comes with the Tablet), and the occasional snapshot.
The SD slot will be used with the multitouch iPhoto-like app. Mmm… multitouch photo viewing and editing on a decently-sized display.
An iMovie-like app also makes a lot of sense. Most digital cameras record video these days, and that SD slot is a great way to get them directly from your camera. I think editing video using multitouch will be one of the highlights of the presentation at the media event. I expect no fewer than two collective awed gasps from the crowd during this segment alone.
And, to round that out, I expect a surprisingly good stereo microphone built in (or at least be an option), and the headphone jack will pull double-duty as an input, just like in the recent MacBooks. A GarageBand-like app will include everything you need to produce and publish a podcast using nothing but the Tablet itself. It’ll also have an impressive array of multitouch instruments, the piano being the first they demo.
Operating System
Neither Mac OS X nor the iPhone OS, but something in between. A desktop-ish home screen with more flexibility than the iPhone’s springboard, including a mix of app icons, Dashboard-like widgets, and a place to pin resizable content shortcuts with full previews à la the new icon functionality in Snow Leopard’s Finder seems to be a natural evolution. Pin a movie to the home screen, play it right there on a whim — that sort of thing.
If users have direct access to the filesystem I’ll purchase a hat and then eat it, and I’m assuming no window management, either. Apps will be, for the most part, full screen. Notifications and apps that don’t make sense in full screen, like iChat, will be implemented as those Dashboard-like widgets I mentioned or relegated to a status bar. The widgets will optionally run in the background and the user can toggle their ability to float on top of the full screen apps. The full screen apps will not be able to run in the background and behave just like a third-party iPhone app: on or off.
Connectivity
WiFi 802.11b/g/n, bluetooth, and optional cellular. I’m betting on GSM with a SIM slot, but probably (hopefully?) not locked to AT&T. The cellular radio will be compatible with both AT&T and T-Mobile’s networks at full 3G speeds.
As for the details on how the cellular would work, my hope is that it’s just there in the hardware and the rest is your call, with a special, optional promotion by each carrier.
I think hope is clouding my judgement with this section. Hell, while I’m at it, let’s go ahead and shove a CDMA radio in there for Verizon and Sprint, too.
Storage
Beyond the SD card slot mentioned above, which I’m guessing will only be used to transfer and store media, there’s going to be some internal storage. Flash memory makes a ton of sense for this very portable, very power-conservitave, very-likely-to-be-hand-held-most-of-the-time device. Of course, solid state storage is expensive, and if this thing is going to hold and capture as much media as I think it is, a traditional hard drive makes more sense, even with the SD card slot.
I wouldn’t be surprised either way. I’ll go with solid state, just because my gut says to write that down. 64 GB and 128 GB models at launch, 256 GB six months after that.
Look & Feel
Aluminium and glass (quite possibly Gorilla Glass or something similar). Minimal plastic. It’ll look amazing from any angle. It will be as thin as a runway model. You will want to lick it and take it to bed with you. If it emits light from anywhere besides the display, said light will be pure, virgin white, and it will pulse with the calm, soothing rhythm of a innocent child’s heart.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there will be a glowing Apple logo on the back, but it won’t be centered. I’m thinking one of the top corners, and quite a bit smaller than the logo on the MacBooks.
SDK
Yes, at or very soon after the media event, combined with the iPhone 4.0 SDK.
Books & Periodicals
Not mentioned, not even once.
Price
Most speculation pegs it between $500 (ha!) to $1,000, with $700 or $800 being the favorite.
I think this is wishful thinking. Apple’s going to do exactly what they’ve always done: make the best damn piece of equipment they can possibly make, with the best quality ingredients, and price it with a healthy-but-not-crazy profit margin. Considering the equipment we’re talking about, that puts it at at least $1,000.
Assuming a single size, $999 for 64 GB, $1199 for 128 GB (the more expensive model will have one or two other bells and whistles to justify the $200 premium, perhaps the stereo mic and a higher resolution iSight).
If there are multiple display sizes I’m guessing they’ll range between $999 and $1499. I’m not going to speculate on the specifics, because I think this is less likely.
I hope I’m horribly wrong about this. $500 would be perfectly fine with me.
Name
MacPad or MacBoard.
Whatever it is we’ll hate it at first, then we’ll get used to it in a few months.
Ship Date
Available for pre-order immediately following the media event at the end of the month, “shipping” mid-Febuary. Mid-Febuary will turn into late-Febuary, people will be enraged, then soothed completely upon arrival of the device.
Other Thoughts
Of course, I’m not the only one to chime in with Tablet predictions. Here are some noteworthy write-ups on the subject, with some excerpts:
John Gruber’s The Tablet and his followup, Tablet Musings:
But there’s one question at the top of the list, the answer to which is the key to answering every other question. That question is this: If you already have an iPhone and a MacBook; why would you want this?
John Siracusa’s Antacid Tablet:
Apple’s doing the hard work to make all of this happen, of course. That means courting a new class of content owners whose wares are a good fit for a tablet-scale device: print publishers. Apple’s got a lot to offer publishers: millions of existing customers who’ve proven their willingness to buy digital media, relationships with other big media companies to show that Apple knows how to get along in this world, even a CEO who is himself the head of a movie studio and the largest single shareholder of a media giant. Add to that the color, video-capable touchscreen, which current electronic publishing suitors lack, and Apple can now appeal to new kinds of publishers: glossy magazines, comic books, and mixed media hybrids (e.g., People magazine with embedded celebrity videos).
Andy Ihnatko’s Thoughts on what an Apple tablet should be – or not:
You’ll get a headphone jack, a SIM slot, Apple’s proprietary dock connector, and that’s it. No access to the inside for any reason whatsoever. It won’t mount on your desktop as mass-storage or anything else.
Neven Mrgan’s DIY and DIY, Pt. II:
I know where the analogy fails: publishing a work should, perhaps, require a little more responsibility, a few more barriers to entry. It’s done less frequently. You stand to make money. It’s meant for the whole world. It’s serious business.
But it would still be really great if you could do it yourself.
Nothing left to do now but wait and see.
Text ✎ Monday, January 11, 2010, 9:03 AM
